The Signal and the Noise : The Art and Science of Prediction Paperback
by Nate Silver
Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future.
Yet from the financial crisis to ecological disasters, we routinely fail to foresee hugely significant events, often at great cost to society.
In "The Signal and the Noise", the "New York Times" political forecaster Nate Silver, who accurately predicted the results of every single state in the 2012 US election, reveals how we can all develop better foresight in an uncertain world.
From the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to the economy, he takes us on an enthralling insider's tour of the high-stakes world of forecasting, showing how we can use information in a smarter way amid a noise of data - and make better predictions in our own lives.
- Format: Paperback
- Pages: 544 pages
- Publisher: Penguin Books Ltd
- Publication Date: 18/04/2013
- Category: Probability & statistics
- ISBN: 9780141975658
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Review by mbmackay
Nate Silver has become famous for his highly accurate predictions in the 2008 and 2012 US presidential elections. In this excellent book he talks more about the limitations of predictions than about his successes - pleasingly self effacing (particularly after recently reading Taleb's Black Swan). After skewering the ratings agencies for their fundamental role in the global financial crisis of 2008, he polishes off the fatuous talking heads and pundits of TV and other media before moving to a success story - weather forecasting. Through it all he makes clear where forecasting can help, and where its potential is limited. A balanced, nuanced and carefully written book which, unfortunately, won't change the world as much as it deserves.Read January 2014.