People, Population Change and Policies : Lessons from the Population Policy Acceptance Study Vol. 2: Demographic Knowledge - Gender - Ageing Mixed media product

Edited by Charlotte Hoehn, Dragana Avramov, Irena E. Kotowska

Part of the European Studies of Population series

Mixed media product

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Description

European countries, including the DIALOG countries, have faced a major de- graphic change and transition in the last thirty years.

They are experiencing lo- term downward trends in fertility, leading to demographic ageing.

Fertility rates are now below replacement level in nearly all countries.

As a result, natural p- ulation growth rates are starting to decline, or population sizes are falling o- right.

At the same time, the proportion of elderly dependants continues to grow while the working-age population declines in absolute and relative terms (see Kontula and Miettinen 2005).

Moreover, net immigration, which potentially could offset declines in working-age population, remains generally low in most European countries (Grant et al. 2004). There are a great number of societal problems that arise from this demographic transition.

The International Monetary Fund (2004) argues that the impact of - coming demographic changes on economical growth could be substantial.

The h- toric association between demographicand macro-economicvariablessuggests that the projected increase in elderly dependency ratios and the projected decline in the share of the working-age population could result in slower per capita GDP growth, and lower saving and investment (IMF 2004, 147).

For example, the estimates s- gest that demographic change could reduce annual real per capita GDP growth in 1 1 advanced countries by an average of / % point by 2050, i. e. , growth would be / % 2 2 point lower than if the demographic structure had remained the same as in 2000 (IMF 2004, 147).